Scotland must nearly double affordable housing delivery to meet need, say major housing bodies

Scotland needs to increase its annual affordable housing delivery by almost 50% during the next Parliamentary term to meet need, according to a new report by Scottish housing bodies.

Released this morning (2 September), the report by CIH Scotland, the Scottish Federation of Housing Associations (SFHA) and Shelter Scotland, presents the findings from research on projected affordable housing need in Scotland for the next Scottish Parliament 2026-31.

It found that the projected gross affordable housing requirement for this period is 15,693 homes annually, which is a 47.8% increase from the 8,188 social and affordable homes delivered in 2024.

This figure also represents an almost 50% increase in estimated need relative to the same report produced in 2020.

Callum Chomczuk, national director of CIH Scotland, said: “A commitment to this target will require a step change in how we deliver and fund social housing in Scotland. We hope the Housing Emergency Action Plan expected today will set us on the pathway to delivering more than 75,000 social and affordable homes in the next Parliament. We look forward to discussing the full findings with stakeholders when published later this month.”

This is the third iteration of this report. Chomczuk said the findings have previously been accepted by the Scottish government and all political parties.

>>See also: A distinct culture but familiar dilemmas: Spotlight on Scotland’s social housing sector

Three different tenure scenarious are presented in the report, with the central model being a 75:25 tenure split for newly-built homes, where 75% are for social rent and 25% for mid-market rent.

In order to meet expected housing need under this model, investment in the nation’s Affordable Housing Supply Programme (AHSP) is estimated to require £1.64bn annually, and £8.2bn over the next Parliament. This could rise to be as much as £8-9.2bn with inflation.

Currently the AHSP has a funding commitment of £767.7m for the 2025-26 financial year, with the aim of building 8000 new homes. Meanwhile, the government’s overall target for affordable housing delivery is 10,000 homes per year.

The drivers of need include increased homelessness, higher numbers of households inadequately housed in private tenures, recent spikes in rental inflation, persistent affordability pressure and a decline in the number of properties becoming vacant within the existing housing stock.