Backing for new homes falls in areas with big increases in targets
Support among the public for housebuilding in their local area has dropped 11% since the general election, according to new research.
MRP modelling by market research firm Stack Data Strategy asked more than 14,000 British adults to whether they would ‘support or oppose more homes being built near to where you live?’.
Their findings showed that the drop in support for building was associated with both areas where housing targets had significantly increased and where Reform won support in local elections.
Labour secured a huge parliamentary majority in last May’s election, after a campaign which included a pledge for a major housebuilding drive.
Since entering government, housing secretary Angela Rayner has moved to overhaul the planning system, which included a return to compulsory targets for local authorities and the adoption of a new standard model for assessing housing need.
This resulted in some councils being asked to increase targeted delivery by more than 100%.
Stack’s modelling revealed the steepest drop in support for building in places expected to carry these high burdens.
In May 2024, the 33 local planning authorities that recorded net opposition to local housebuilding were expected to build 33,826 new homes each year.
A year later, under new targets, 59 LPAs now show net opposition to local building, with the targeted delivery number growing to 56,428 homes.
Nearly a third of the 59 are in Kent, Leicestershire, Cambridgeshire, Lincolnshire, Derbyshire. In each of these areas, the Reform party increased its county council representation in local elections earlier this month.
The hard-right political party led by Nigel Farage won the highest vote share nationwide and picked up 677 new seats and a mayoralty.
Net support for local housebuilding fell 22% in Derbyshire Dales, where the proposed target rose by 164%. In East Lindsey in Lincolnshire, support also fell 22%, while the proposed target rose by 150%.
Stack’s data also found that support had fallen among renters and young people.
Renters’ backing for new housing near where they live fell by 14%, while support among younger voters aged 18-34 dropped by 16%, despite house prices continuing to rise.
Just under 30% of young opponents of local housebuilding were concerned that “new housing won’t be affordable anyway”, compared to 24% in the wider population.
Across the full survey, the main reasons cited for opposition to local housebuilding were the increased strain on local services (57%) and the potential loss of green spaces or damage to the environment (49%).
This could be a cause for concern for a government that has ordered councils to conduct green belt reviews if they are unable to find enough brownfield land to meet their targets.
Despite the drop in support, Stack noted that 300,000 of the targeted 360,000 new homes each year were set to be built in areas that still had net neutral or positive support for local housebuilding.
It also recorded +34% net support for the national 1.5 million home target set by the government for this parliament, with net support even among Conservative (+14%) and Reform (+2%) voters.
The research also found that, when those surveyed were told that building more homes in their local area could save council money on temporary accommodation, net national support for local housebuilding grew from +17% to +37%.
Kieran Kumaria, managing director of Stack Data Strategy, said: “There are supportive majorities to be won for local housebuilding across the country.
“But this data underscores the urgency with which everyone needs to move, because support is dropping even among groups who stand to benefit from new housing, like young people and renters.”
The publication of Stack’s data came as Hamptons published data showing a 31% fall in the share of new homes, both houses and flats, sold off-plan.
This was the lowest proportion since 2012, down from a peak of 49%.
David Fell, lead analyst at Hamptons said that the drop in new homes finding a buyer before they are built had “hit housebuilders hard”.
He said it was “unlikely” that the level of off-plan sales being agreed would be “sufficient for the government to get close to its 300,000 homes target” given that housebuilders rely on this forward funding to progress on site.
“While bulk deals with institutional investors have helped, they haven’t replaced demand from smaller landlords,” he said.
Fell said the rise in the stamp duty surcharge on second homes last November had hit many off-plan investor purchases.
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