Middle East conflict to have ‘limited impact’ on full-year results, says Barratt Redrow

Barratt Redrow expects the Middle East conflict to have “limited impact” on its full-year performance for 2026, the firm has said in a trading update.

In the 13-week period from 29 December 2025 to 29 March 2026, the housebuilding giant reported a net private reservation rate (excluding private rental and multi-unit sales) of 0.64, up 3.2% on the comparable period the year prior.

The reservation rate including private rental and multi-unit sales was 6.3% up to 0.67.

Chief executive David Thomas said the firm had experienced a “solid third quarter, with a resilient reservation rate underpinned by good customer demand”.

“Despite heightened macroeconomic uncertainty, we expect the Middle East conflict to have limited impact on FY26 performance, given our strong forward sales position and advanced build programme,” he added.

Analyst Peel Hunt agreed that the firm’s reservation rate had held up well in the third quarter and did not change its guidance of roughly £568m pre-tax profit in FY26.

However it urged “more caution looking forward”, noting its suspicion that the resilient reservation rate was “down to buyers pushing on with purchases using previously secured, lower-priced mortgages”.

It said it intended to “review FY27E and FY28E on slower sales and higher build cost inflation” arising from the Gulf conflict.

Barratt Redrow maintained the 2% build cost inflation forecast for FY26, which it set out in its February interims. 

However, it recognised that “higher energy costs are likely to be reflected in increased building material costs in FY27” and said it would have “better visibility” on FY27 build cost inflation by the time of its next trading update in mid-July.

Thomas said Barratt Redrow was “on track” to deliver between 17,200 and 17,800 homes in the full-year and pre-tax profit “in line with consensus expectations”.

“Looking ahead, we have a proven track record of navigating uncertainty and remain confident in our financial strength and ability to adapt to changing market conditions,” he said. 

“We will continue to closely monitor developments while maintaining a disciplined approach to capital allocation, selective land investment and rigorous cost control.”